The world economy has slid into the deepest economic recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s and looks set to contract by around 3% this year. In this podcast, Nordea Group Chief Economist Helge Pedersen shares highlights from the newly released Nordea Economic Outlook, The Road to Recovery.
What will the path out of the COVID-19 crisis look like? Why do we expect this crisis to be shorter than the financial crisis? Have the Nordic countries’ diverging approaches to containing the virus had any impact on the economic outcomes?
Podcast summary with time stamps:
0:45 – The world economy is in a deep crisis. What will the way out look like? Is the worst behind us?
2:40 – Upside and downside scenarios. Could the recovery go faster than expected? What if the lockdowns last even longer, or we see a second or third wave of the corona outbreak?
4:28 – GDP forecasts for baseline, upside and downside scenarios for 2020 and 2021.
5:54 – Why the corona crisis will likely not last as long as the financial crisis, and the effect of governments’ fiscal and monetary response.
8:50 – The service sector has been hit the hardest. Does that affect the nature and length of this crisis?
11:26 – Which parts of the world are in the best position to recover from the crisis? Which will struggle more to get back on the growth track?
14:11 – The Nordic countries have had different approaches for how to contain the virus, with Sweden having a more relaxed approach. Have these different approaches had an effect on the economic outcomes in the different countries?
16:49 – Other geopolitical risks on the horizon could have an impact on the global economy going forward. Here are the main ones to keep an eye on.
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