There’s less than six months to go until the UK formally exits the European
Union. Theresa May needs to deliver the speech of her life to the Conservative
party faithful on Wednesday. The economic outlook meanwhile continues
to look extremely uncertain. What’s ahead in the run-up to March 29, 2019?
“There are too many red lines for the EU in the
Chequers deal. It’s dead at least in the format
Theresa May has outlined.”
- Morten Lund
THERESA MAY’S CHEQUERS PLAN IS IN SHREDS. ARCH-NEMESIS AND BREXITEER TOTEM BORIS JOHNSON IS WAITING IN THE WINGS. A BLOODY, POLITICAL BATTLE LOOKS LIKELY. WHO’LL EMERGE TOP OF THE PILE?
That’s how much Brexit will cost
each UK household, says Bank
of England governor Mark Carney.
Carney has been the subject of
much criticism from Brexiteers who
accuse him of politicising the debate.
He has also warned of a 1/3
Sterling has floundered ever since it snaked north of 1.50 against the dollar on the night of the referendum (June 23, 2016) in anticipation of a ‘remain’ win. A recovery this year was nipped in the bid from April highs above 1.42, since when it has been locked into a 1.25-1.32 range. Fluctuations for the foreseeable will be determined by the nature of the Brexit deal. Nothing else matters.
The train is leaving threatening London’s status as Europe’s premier financial centre. Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin have already put out feelers and most of the big banks have contingencies in place if a hard Brexit happens. London may need to show a bit of the old Dunkirk spirit.
Cost or benefit?
IMMIGRATION REMAINS AT THE HEART OF THE BREXIT VOTE AND THE DIVIDE THAT HAS SPLIT THE UK DOWN THE MIDDLE. THE DEBATE OVER WHETHER MIGRANTS ARE A DRAIN OR A BONUS FOR AN ECONOMY RAGES, AND IT HAS BECOME HIGHLY-POLITICALLY CHARGED. BUT THE ECONOMIST FOUND IN 2014 THAT SOME 85% OF IMMIGRANTS WERE IN WORK AND PAYING MORE IN TAX THAN THEY TOOK AS BENEFITS.
“I think we’ll see a hard, but smooth Brexit. If that’s how it pans out, we will see a gradual strengthening of sterling.”
- Morten Lund
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